Monday, January 23, 2006

The Canadian Election

The Conservative Party of Canada has won, with a total of 124 seats. The Loyal Opposition will be the Liberals, with 103 seats. Bloc 51, NDP 29.
For the sake of all those readers out there in the heartland of America who don't keep up with Canadian politics, a short explanation.
The two main parties are the Liberals and the Conservatives - the equivalent of the Democrats and the Republicans.
Here's what you need to know about the Liberals. They have been in power, barring a few politically humorous interludes, since Nixon. They have become arrogant and corrupt. They considered control of Canada to be somewhere between a birthright and a sure thing. The last Prime Minister, Paul Martin, executed a political coup to gain control of the party. They have just been implicated in one of the biggest patronage scandals in the nation's history - just the latest in a string of scandals lasting over a decade.
Here's what you need to know about the Conservatives. They couldn't win a majority while running against the Ottawa Thieves' Guild.
The party, as it is today, is a fusion between the moribund Progressive Conservatives, a backbiting group that hasn't had a strategy since the early 60s, and the Reform Party, an American style right wing fundamentalist party started in Alberta, aka Texas North. The oil-rich cowboys of the Canadian West were tired of being controlled by the white collar East, and created their own party to take control.
Now, they've got it. Sort of.
There are two other parties. The Bloc Quebecois is the latest version of the Quebec seperatist movement. Imagine if America's southern states created a Confederacy Party, running on a platform of secession from the Union. That's the Bloc in a nutshell. It makes Canada unique among all Western Powers in that its government has its own self-destruct mechanism.
The other party, the NDP, consists of everyone who wouldn't join the Liberals because they weren't far enough to the left. They are probably the main reason for the Liberal success over the last few decades - all the tree huggers and fuzzy thinkers that have plagued other left wing parties like the Democrats, driving away the moderates, all left and created their own party.
Now look at the vote figures again.
In Canadian politics, the magic number is 155. That is the number for a majority vote.
Notice that of the four parties in power, only two can control a majority between them, other than that of the two main parties. That is the Conservatives and the Bloc.
This probably means that, to stay in power, the Conservatives are going to have to appease the Quebec seperatists.
But note, also, that to defeat the Conservatives, the Liberals must have the support of both the Bloc and the NDP - both of whom are going to be acting as power brokers for the next few years. The Far Left and the Self-Destruct Mechanism - the DealMakers and DealBreakers.
Just remember that, next time you hear "interesting" news out of Canada.

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