Monday, April 17, 2006

Iran - The No Win Situation

For years the anti-war crowd has warned about the possible fallout from the Iraq war.
Well, it would seem that Iran is that fallout.
Iran is a no-win situation for the US.
1) The US cannot just launch an airstrike. Sure, they might take out the nuclear plants, but what happens if Iran decides to strike back? Normally, they would not have a target, America being so far away and all. But, guess what's just a few miles over the border? That's right, it's the United States Army, along with civilian personnel, all trying to rebuild Iraq.
Now, normally, attacking the United States army would be suicidal. But remember - these troops have been tied up by terrorist bombs and activity for some time. The equipment needs maintenance, the troops need rotation.
For once, the outcome is not certain.
Iran could also strike east, into Afghanistan and against the troops stationed there. Any attempt to reinforce or extract those troops would be highly vulnerable.
2) The US cannot invade, either. They might win.
The United States government is going broke trying to put Iraq back together. What happens when it has to put two countries back on their feet?
3) The US cannot do nothing. Iran is inching closer and closer to nuclear capabilities, and statements by the Iranian government do not inspire the feeling that they might refuse to use them. It is already rumored that Iran is preparing a suicide force for a posible counterstrike. If that force is equipped with a nuclear weapon, . . .
4) The diplomatic route is all but closed, due to the actions of the Bush government over the last few years. Nobody will listen to a bully. Nobody wants to listen. Condi will not be able to defuse this problem, I'm afraid.
Most of the world has turned on the Bush government's heavy handed tactics. The US will find no help from anyone other than Great Britain (and, now, maybe Canada), and their military is not that big.

So, what's left?
Not much. No matter what decision America makes, things are going to turn out badly for them.
My worry is, what will happen back home? Will the Bush government try to blame all this on the liberals? Will liberals be herded into prisons, to shore up the neo-conservative position? Will America descend into totalitarianism?
I hope not. Only time will tell.
But it's happened before.

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